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天然氣仍將以增加其對(duì)全球能源結(jié)構(gòu)中所占的份額，雖然放緩，從去年的2.7％的預(yù)測，現(xiàn)在和2018年間每年2.4％，國際能源署（IEA）表示，在其新發(fā)布的中期天然氣市場報(bào)告（MTGMR） 。放緩是由于需求持續(xù)疲軟，在歐洲以及中東和非洲的上游產(chǎn)量增長的困難。然而，預(yù)測天然氣作為運(yùn)輸燃料，繼續(xù)強(qiáng)調(diào)其實(shí)力，這個(gè)時(shí)代作為一種新興的燃料。

該報(bào)告認(rèn)為氣體逐漸成為一個(gè)重要的運(yùn)輸燃料。執(zhí)行摘要指出：“天然氣利用公路運(yùn)輸占1.4％，在2012年，全球天然氣需求，但消費(fèi)的增長到50億立方米左右，在同一時(shí)期（9.4％的額外的天然氣需求，到2018年這一份額將上升至2.5％） “。

得益于豐富的頁巖氣在美國和在中國中更嚴(yán)格的環(huán)保政策，天然氣有望做更多的減緩石油需求增長比電動(dòng)車和生物燃料聯(lián)合。內(nèi)容提要：“中國矮化其消費(fèi)量的三倍至39億立方米的其他地區(qū)，由于發(fā)展的需要相結(jié)合，開發(fā)更清潔的運(yùn)輸車輛，有吸引力的天然氣價(jià)格與石油和希望減少對(duì)石油的依賴，通過替代車輛技術(shù)“。

“盡管我們已修訂我們的增長預(yù)測下調(diào)，”黃金時(shí)代“的氣體仍然如火如荼，”國際能源署（IEA）執(zhí)行干事瑪麗亞·范德胡芬說，她提出的報(bào)告在圣彼得堡。“天然氣是發(fā)電的主要燃料，但在未來五年也將看到它作為重要的運(yùn)輸燃料供應(yīng)充足，以及對(duì)石油的依賴和空氣污染的擔(dān)憂，帶動(dòng)新興。一旦基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施障礙，解決天然氣重型運(yùn)輸中具有重大潛力的清潔能源使用，，電氣化是不可能的。“

報(bào)告談到氣十足的價(jià)值鏈，這意味著天然氣供應(yīng)充足，發(fā)展和建設(shè)液化廠養(yǎng)活LNG重型車輛，以及液化天然氣（LNG）或/和壓縮天然氣加氣站同步發(fā)展的需要。內(nèi)容提要：“經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)應(yīng)該是有吸引力的天然氣價(jià)值鏈的所有部件，尤其是業(yè)主的汽車或卡車的車隊(duì)。使用LNG作為一個(gè)貨運(yùn)燃料似乎回答了很多的關(guān)注，特別是雞和雞蛋的問題，車隊(duì)所有者可以組隊(duì)與LNG零售商和積極的投資回報(bào)，可在幾年內(nèi)達(dá)到。汽車行業(yè)應(yīng)該能夠提供足夠數(shù)量的車輛引進(jìn)天然氣汽車在他們的產(chǎn)品范圍，并努力降低價(jià)格溢價(jià)替代汽油或柴油車輛，提供經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策激勵(lì)措施產(chǎn)生這類車輛的需求。必要條件包括：統(tǒng)一的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和規(guī)則，參與貨運(yùn)的人員提供適當(dāng)?shù)呐嘤?xùn);處理天然氣汽車加氣站;成天然氣汽車和改裝車輛。“

該報(bào)告也承認(rèn)非公路部門，如從海洋和鐵路應(yīng)用的需求不斷增長的需求和潛力。

Natural gas will continue to increase its share of the global energy mix, albeit slowing from last year’s prediction of 2.7% down to 2.4% per year between now and 2018, the IEA said in its newly released Medium-Term Gas Market Report (MTGMR). Slowing is due to persistent demand weakness in Europe as well as difficulties in upstream production growth in the Middle East and Africa. However, prediction for natural gas as a transportation fuel continues to emphasize its strength as an emerging fuel for this era.

The report sees gas emerging as a significant transportation fuel. The Executive Summary states: “Gas use in road transport represented 1.4% of global gas demand in 2012, but this share should rise to 2.5% by 2018 as consumption grows to around 50 bcm in the same period (9.4% of additional gas demand).”

Thanks to abundant shale gas in the United States and amid more stringent environmental policies in China, gas is expected to do more to slow oil demand growth than electric vehicles and biofuels combined. From the Executive Summary: “China is dwarfing developments in other regions as its consumption triples to 39 bcm, due to the combination of the need to develop cleaner transport vehicles, attractive gas prices versus oil and the wish to reduce oil dependency through alternative vehicles technologies.”

“Even though we have revised our growth estimates downwards, the ‘Golden Age’ of gas remains in full swing,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven as she presented the report in Saint Petersburg. “Gas is already a major fuel in power generation, but the next five years will also see it emerging as a significant transportation fuel, driven by abundant supplies as well as concerns about oil dependency and air pollution. Once the infrastructure barriers are tackled, natural gas has significant potential for clean-energy use in heavy-duty transport where electrification is not possible.”

The report speaks to the need for simultaneous development of the full gas value chain, which implies developing sufficient gas supply and building liquefaction plants to feed LNG heavy-duty vehicles, as well as LNG or/and compressed natural gas refilling stations. Executive Summary: “The economics should be attractive for all parts of the gas value chain, in particular owners of fleets of cars or trucks. Use of LNG as a trucking fuel seems to answer many concerns, in particular the chicken-and-egg issue, as fleet owners can team up with LNG retailers and a positive return on investments can be reached within a few years. The car industry should be able to deliver a sufficient number of vehicles by introducing NGVs in their product range, and by working on decreasing the price premium over alternative gasoline or diesel vehicles, provided that economics and policy incentives generate demand for such vehicles. Necessary conditions include: the harmonisation of standards and rules; proper training of personnel involved in trucking; handling NGVs and filling stations; and retrofitting vehicles into NGVs.”

The report also acknowledges the growing demand and potential for demand from non-road sectors such as from marine and rail applications.