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  報告突出了機會，遠離石油為基礎(chǔ)的燃料多元化，美國的交通運輸部門

  美國清潔天空基金會（學(xué)聯(lián)）已經(jīng)發(fā)表了一份新的報告- 駕駛天然氣：天然氣汽車的燃料價格和需求的方案，到2025年 -這在未來十年內(nèi)找到一個過渡，以天然氣為燃料的重型和輕型車輛對天然氣價格的影響微乎其微。該報告使用三種情形來計算潛在的天然氣占天然氣汽車（天然氣汽車）的需求和價格的影響。美國B42R天然氣調(diào)節(jié)閥，直燃式調(diào)壓器

  C.裝訂，學(xué)聯(lián)組織的首席執(zhí)行官和聯(lián)合報告的作者格雷戈里說：“我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了天然氣汽車天然氣需求的估計水平，即使在最樂觀的情況下，占2025年只有大約2％的整體市場，” 。“增量燃料價格上漲，這種高增長的情況下，只有約25美分，每百萬英熱單位，或5％。”

  “這主要是因為我們預(yù)計在未來十年內(nèi)天然氣汽車增長提供足夠的時間供應(yīng)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施發(fā)展跟上需求的步伐，從而中度任何增量的天然氣價格影響，”裝訂。

  學(xué)聯(lián)的樂觀增長的情況下包括兩個輕型和重型天然氣汽車的高采用率。在這種情況下，運輸部門的天然氣需求增長57十億立方英尺（BCF）在2025年在2013年至711億立方英尺，相當于大約2.3％的年總需求量。到2025年，其中48萬頃重型卡車，估計大約2.4萬天然氣汽車在道路上的場景。整個場景的影響對2025年天然氣價格為額外的3美分至27美分，每百萬英熱單位。

  報告強調(diào)了機會，以分散美國的交通部門，遠離石油為基礎(chǔ)的燃料。目前，全國93％的運輸燃料是石油的基礎(chǔ)上，使經(jīng)濟容易受到油價沖擊。在報告的最高的天然氣汽車增長的情況下，超過180萬桶石油燃料，到2025年天然氣流離失所二〇一三年至2025年累計近1億億桶石油消費避免。

  報告的合著者帕特里克·比恩說，“我們的分析應(yīng)該給企業(yè)，消費者，監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的信心，一個合理的過渡到天然氣汽車可以實現(xiàn)能源安全的目標，而天然氣為燃料的價格和競爭的影響最小。”

  該報告還發(fā)現(xiàn)，柴油和汽油相比，壓縮天然氣（CNG）和液化天然氣（LNG）的零售價格將保持吸引力即使天然氣價格顯著增加。目前，CNG零售價格的20％左右是由于原料天然氣成本。即使天然氣價格一倍，從$ 4/MMBtu $ 8/MMBtu，商品CNG零售價格的組成部分將是40％左右，和CNG將耗資約$ 2.20每加侖汽油當量。

  Report highlights the opportunity to diversify America’s transportation sector away from petroleum-based fuels

  The American Clean Skies Foundation (ACSF) has published a new report — Driving on Natural Gas: Fuel Price and Demand Scenarios for Natural Gas Vehicles to 2025 – which finds a transition to natural gas-fueled heavy duty and light duty vehicles over the next decade will have a minimal impact on natural gas prices. The report uses three scenarios to calculate potential natural gas demand and price impacts attributable to natural gas vehicles (NGVs).

  “We found that the estimated level of natural gas demand from NGVs, even under the most optimistic scenario, accounted for only about 2 percent of the overall market by 2025,” said Gregory C. Staple, ACSF’s CEO and co-author of the report. “And the incremental rise in fuel prices for this high growth scenario was only approximately 25 cents per MMBtu, or 5 percent.”

  “That’s largely because we expect the growth in natural gas vehicles over the next decade to provide adequate time for supply and infrastructure developments to keep pace with demand, and thus to moderate any incremental natural gas price impact,” Staple added.

  ACSF’s optimistic growth scenario included high adoption rates of both light duty and heavy duty NGVs. In this scenario, the transportation sector’s natural gas demand grew from 57 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2013 to 711 Bcf in 2025, which equates to roughly 2.3 percent of total demand that year. The scenario estimated roughly 2.4 million NGVs on the road by 2025, of which 480,000 are heavy duty trucks. The effect on 2025 natural gas prices across the scenarios ranged from an additional 3 cents to 27 cents per MMBtu.

  The report highlights the opportunity to diversify America’s transportation sector away from petroleum-based fuels. Currently, 93 percent of country’s transportation fuel is petroleum based, leaving the economy susceptible to oil price shocks. In the report’s highest NGV growth scenario, more than 180 million barrels of petroleum fuels are displaced by natural gas in 2025 and almost 1 billion barrels of oil consumption avoided cumulatively from 2013-2025.

  Report co-author Patrick Bean said, “Our analysis should give businesses, consumers, regulators and political leaders confidence that a plausible transition to NGVs can achieve energy security objectives while having minimal impact on natural gas prices and competition for the fuel.”

The report also found that retail prices for compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) will remain attractive compared to diesel and gasoline even if natural gas prices increase significantly. Currently, about 20 percent of the retail CNG price is attributable to the raw natural gas cost. Even if natural gas prices double from $4/MMBtu to $8/MMBtu, the commodity component of retail CNG prices will be about 40 percent, and CNG will cost about $2.20 per gallon of gasoline equivalent.